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Philippine police shooting risks Mindanao peace effort

Friday, January 30, 2015

Significance

The shooting, called a "misencounter", has cast a shadow on today's meeting in Malaysia between Manila and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) peace negotiators to sign the agreement on rebel disarmament. This may not ultimately produce its intended result. Meanwhile, Manila and the MILF have set up panels to investigate the shooting's causes, aiming to avoid similar future occurrences.

Impacts

  • The MILF is unlikely to hand over the terrorist suspects the police sought.
  • Further Bangsamoro progress is unlikely before investigations close.
  • Ratings agencies may revise Philippines forecasts downwards.
  • Police coordination difficulties may constrain other anti-terrorism efforts.
  • Even if the Bangsamoro Basic bill is passed this year, it would probably face Supreme Court challenge.
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