To read the full version of this content please select one of the options below:

Islamic State group has reinvigorated global jihadism

Friday, January 9, 2015

Significance

The past year witnessed further jihadi gains amid the political turmoil in the Middle East that has followed the Arab uprisings -- most significantly the Islamic State Group (ISG)'s conquest of Sunni provinces Iraq in June and proclamation of a caliphate. However, the advance is not even across the board; the threat remains centred on regional targets, more than those in the West. More spillover from a metastasising jihadism in the Middle East is to be expected, including sporadic high-profile attacks in the West.

Impacts

  • The international reputation of Syria's Assad regime will gradually improve as the West remains focused on the threat of the ISG.
  • Authoritarian regimes will exploit the jihadist threat to justify internal security crackdowns and delay democratic reforms.
  • US-Iranian collaboration against ISG will reinforce the perception of an anti-Sunni conspiracy -- a key feature of jihadi propaganda.
  • The US shale oil revolution will continue to offset disruption to oil supplies by the ISG.
  • Tourism in affected countries, particularly Egypt, will continue to suffer.
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica
Stay up to date
Sign up to the Expert Daily Briefings email alert and receive up-to-the-minute analysis of global events as they happen.
*If your university does not have access to Expert Briefings, visit our information page to find out more.