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Vulnerability analysis of Nigeria's agricultural output growth and climate change

Oluyemi Theophilus Adeosun (Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria)
Peter Asare-Nuamah (School of Sustainable Development, University of Environment and Sustainable Development Somanya, Eastern Region, Ghana)
Franklin Nantui Mabe (Department of Agricultural Management and Policy, University for Development Studies, Tamale, Ghana)

Management of Environmental Quality

ISSN: 1477-7835

Article publication date: 12 July 2021

Issue publication date: 5 October 2021

277

Abstract

Purpose

Aside from oil, the Nigerian economy is largely agrarian, which is rain-fed. Hence the criticality of understanding climate change and its impact on agricultural output is more pressing than ever. This is in line with Sustainable Development Goal 13 which is to take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. Regardless, Nigeria has in the past five decades experienced a significant increase in temperature, in the range of 10 to over 30 degree Celsius. Therefore, managing the effect of climate change on agricultural output now has the colouration of a developmental challenge.

Design/methodology/approach

In light of this, this study gives due consideration to the impact of climate change on agricultural output between the years 1986 and 2015. For the purpose of analysis, descriptive statistics, unit root test and the ordinary least square (OLS) estimation technique were employed.

Findings

Findings from the study reveal that the average annual rainfall, temperature and forest area positively influence agricultural output, whereas drought, floods and agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions have negative impact on agricultural output. The study suggests the need for a regulatory framework and also an explicit national agricultural policy essential to offset the negative effects of climate change especially on agricultural output.

Originality/value

As Nigeria look to diversify her economy which relied on oil, agriculture is among the alternative sector hoping to drive her economic growth, therefore, it is pertinent to examine the current output in the sector given the effects of climate change.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

The author acknowledges everyone who have and will still contribute to the great success of this research work. Special thanks to Dr. Omolara Faboya, Kayode Owolabi and Isaac Gbadamosi for their contribution towards the research.

Funding details: The author received no direct funding for this research work.

Declaration of interest statement: The author declares no conflict of interest.

Citation

Adeosun, O.T., Asare-Nuamah, P. and Mabe, F.N. (2021), "Vulnerability analysis of Nigeria's agricultural output growth and climate change", Management of Environmental Quality, Vol. 32 No. 6, pp. 1352-1366. https://doi.org/10.1108/MEQ-04-2021-0075

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited

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