On fluctuating characteristics of global COVID-19 cases and identification of inflection points

Abstract

Purpose

The emergence of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has had a tremendous impact on the world, and the characteristics of its evolution need to be better understood.

Design/methodology/approach

To explore the changes of cases and control them effectively, this paper analyzes and models the fluctuation and dynamic characteristics of the daily growth rate based on the data of newly confirmed cases around the world. Based on the data, the authors identify the inflection points and analyze the causes of the new daily confirmed cases and deaths worldwide.

Findings

The study found that the growth sequence of the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day has a significant cluster of fluctuations. The impact of previous fluctuations in the future is gradually attenuated and shows a relatively gentle long-term downward trend. There are four inflection points in the global time series of new confirmed cases and the number of deaths per day. And these inflection points show the state of an accelerated rise, a slowdown in the rate of decline, a slowdown in the rate of growth and an accelerated decline in turn.

Originality/value

This paper has a certain guiding and innovative significance for the dynamic research of COVID-19 cases in the world.

Citation

Feng, X., Zhang, H., Zhang, Y., Sun, L., Li, J. and Wu, Y. (2021), "On fluctuating characteristics of global COVID-19 cases and identification of inflection points", Library Hi Tech, Vol. 39 No. 3, pp. 888-902. https://doi.org/10.1108/LHT-10-2020-0263