Associated probabilities aggregations in multistage investment decision-making

Abstract

Purpose

The attributes that influence the selection of applicants and the relevant crediting decisions are naturally distinguished by interactions and interdependencies. A new method of possibilistic discrimination analysis (MPDA) was developed for the second stage to address this phenomenon. The method generates positive and negative discrimination measures for each alternative applicant in relation to a particular attribute. The obtained discrimination pair reflects the interaction of attributes and represents intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs). For the aggregation of applicant's discrimination intuitionistic fuzzy assessments (with respect to attributes), new intuitionistic aggregation operators, such as AsP-IFOWA and AsP-IFOWG, are defined and studied. The new operators are certain extensions of the well-known Choquet integral and Yager OWA operators. The extensions, in contrast to the Choquet aggregation, take into account all possible interactions of the attributes by introducing associated probabilities of a fuzzy measure.

Design/methodology/approach

For optimal planning of investments distribution and decreasing of credit risks, it is crucial to have selected projects ranked within deeply detailed investment model. To achieve this, a new approach developed in this article involves three stages. The first stage is to reduce a possibly large number of applicants for credit, and here, the method of expertons is used. At the second stage, a model of improved decisions is built, which reduces the risks of decision making. In this model, as it is in multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) + multi-objective decision-making (MODM), expert evaluations are presented in terms of utility, gain, and more. At the third stage, the authors construct the bi-criteria discrete intuitionistic fuzzy optimization problem for making the most profitable investment portfolio with new criterion: 1) Maximization of total ranking index of selected applicants' group and classical criterion and 2) Maximization of total profit of selected applicants' group.

Findings

The example gives the Pareto fronts obtained by both new operators, the Choquet integral and Yager OWA operators also well-known TOPSIS approach, for selecting applicants and awarding credits. For a fuzzy measure, the possibility measure defined on the expert evaluations of attributes is taken.

Originality/value

The comparative analysis identifies the applicants who will receive the funding sequentially based on crediting resources and their requirements. It has become apparent that the use of the new criterion has given more credibility to applicants in making optimal credit decisions in the environment of extended new operators, where the phenomenon of interaction of all attributes was also taken into account.

Citation

Sirbiladze, G., Garg, H., Khutsishvili, I., Ghvaberidze, B. and Midodashvili, B. (2023), "Associated probabilities aggregations in multistage investment decision-making", Kybernetes, Vol. 52 No. 4, pp. 1370-1399. https://doi.org/10.1108/K-09-2021-0908