Emergency plan selection for epidemic prevention and control based on cumulative prospect theory and hybrid-information MADM

Abstract

Purpose

Decision-making problems in emergency plan selection for epidemic prevention and control (EPAC) are generally characterized by risky and uncertainty due to multiple possible emergency states and vagueness of decision information. In the process of emergency plan selection for EPAC, it is necessary to consider several obvious features, i.e. different states of epidemics, dynamic evolvement process of epidemics and decision-makers' (DMs') psychological factors such as risk preference and loss aversion.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, a novel decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is proposed to solve emergency plan selection of an epidemic problem, which is generally regarded as hybrid-information multi-attribute decision-making (HI-MADM) problems in major epidemics. Initially, considering the psychological factors of DMs, the expectations of DMs are chosen as reference points to normalize the expectation vectors and decision information with three different formats. Subsequently, the matrix of gains and losses is established according to the reference points. Furthermore, the prospect value of each alternative is obtained and the comprehensive prospect values of alternatives under different states are calculated. Accordingly, the ranking of alternatives can be obtained.

Findings

The validity and robustness of the proposed method are demonstrated by a case calculation of emergency plan selection. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis with fuzzy similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) method and TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for interactive and MADM) method illustrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.

Originality/value

An emergency plan selection method is proposed for EPAC based on CPT, taking into account the psychological factors of DMs.

Highlights

1. This paper proposes a new CPT-based EDM method for EPAC under a major epidemic considering the psychological factorsof DMs, such as risk preference, loss aversion and so on.

2. The authors' work gives approaches of normalization, comparison and distance measurement for dealing with the integration of three hybrid formats of attributes.

3. This article gives some guidance, which contributes to solve the problems of risk-based hybrid multi-attribute EDM.

4. The authors illustrate the advantages of the proposed method by a sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis with existing FTOPSIS method and TODIM method.

Citation

Mao, Q., Chen, J., Lv, J. and Chen, S. (2023), "Emergency plan selection for epidemic prevention and control based on cumulative prospect theory and hybrid-information MADM", Kybernetes, Vol. 52 No. 5, pp. 1903-1933. https://doi.org/10.1108/K-08-2021-0736