Does the future have a recipe?

Ian Seymour Yeoman (School of Management, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand)

Journal of Tourism Futures

ISSN: 2055-5911

Article publication date: 15 May 2019

Issue publication date: 15 May 2019

603

Citation

Yeoman, I.S. (2019), "Does the future have a recipe?", Journal of Tourism Futures, Vol. 5 No. 1, pp. 3-4. https://doi.org/10.1108/JTF-03-2019-078

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2019, Ian Seymour Yeoman

License

Published in Journal of Tourism Futures. Published by Emerald Publishing Limited. This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) licence. Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this article (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original publication and authors. The full terms of this licence may be seen at http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode


Does the future have a recipe?

The future is unknown, scary and threatening but at the same time surprising, hopeful and imaginative. Global futures face many challenges, whether it is climate change, energy, ageing populations but at the same time the future offers tourism new markets, new tourists and development. Tourism has never been more conscious about its future with changing attitudes towards sustainability. Tourists have been better connected to the world through mobility, advances in technology and in real terms, the falling cost of travel. For thousands of years we failed to understand, predict, control and manage the future of tourism. So what is the future and its dimensions?

The future comes from the English word “future” which seems have been first used in the fourteenth century. According to Gidley (2017) the word future places its roots in the in the Latin future/futurus’ meaning going to be, yet to be. It also appears in the Old French language as futur: future to come. The future is not something that can be observed with the senses or captured via memories, yet we consider it to be real in some essential way. Too be aware of the future, we use mental functions that are dependent on sensory information or memory.

Whoever bears the responsibility of deciding on behalf of an organisation knows the paralysing effect of uncertainty, particularly on the evolution of the relevant environment. The world is full of uncertainty as the future is unknown (Yeoman, 2012). Uncertainty equates to risk as Knight (1971) argues that when probabilities of the outcome are known in advance, uncertainty means chance when they are not know. As Martelli (2014, p. 4) notes:

If a die is tossed we know in advance that the face with a “5” has one probability in six, (that is, 1/6) of appearing – unless the die is loaded, if course. Unfortunately, most strategic decision are of the second type: where probabilities can estimated beforehand on a conjectural basis, where probabilities can at best calculated.

Complexity is the effect of the action and interaction among a large number of agents that operate simultaneously. As complexity and these agents usually involves the study of human activity and decisions in scenarios, that complexity makes the study of the future and prediction even more complex (Checkland, 1990). Dator’s (1971) first law of the futures states that “the future cannot be predicted but alternative futures can be pondered”. Van der Heijden’s et al. (2002) scenario planning method is based upon four scenarios or futures. The concept of plurality derives from science, that there cannot be one absolute answer to the know, thus science is a debate of many different viewpoints of interpretations.

Time is indefinite, a continued progress of existence and events that occur. Time is a succession from the past through to the present and into the future. Time is what the clock reads (Nordlund, 2012). The concept of time is strongly linked to futures studies. As a starting point Brier (2005) asks the question, what do we mean by the future? The implication is that we think forward and not towards the past. Thus, the future is a recipe of ingredients; knowing, uncertainty, complexity, plurality and time.

Recipes of the future

In this issue, Preko and colleagues discusses the future of youth tourism (YT). The study presents the push–pull motives and behavioural intentions of youth tourists and how these provide the foundation for the planning and development of Ghana’s tourism future. Since YT is regarded as a niche market globally, the purpose of this paper is to identify the prospects of this form of tourism in a developing nation. Rai and colleagues test the applicability of brand interaction and perceived quality theory in the formation of brand trust, and the impact of affective commitment and brand trust towards advocacy intentions in the context of the Indian hospitality industry. Jasper’s paper examines the lessons of how to facilitate sustainable tourism in a region.

These lessons include: vision and leadership; collaboration between stakeholders; tourism financing system needs to be transparent and fair; seasonal extension reduces vulnerability and the circular economy and sustainable use of resources. Singh and Srivastav explore the applicability of technology acceptance model to explain the widespread acceptance and usage of social media for travel purposes by Indian outbound leisure travellers during their travel cycle.

Shafiq research examines the Generation Y’s perceived service quality and its effect on their satisfaction towards the Malaysian hotel industry. Finally, Ghalehkhondabi and colleagues review the tourism and passenger transport demand forecasts models and their development.

References

Brier, D.J. (2005), “Marking the future: a review of time horizons”, Futures, Vol. 37 No. 8, pp. 833-48, available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.005

Checkland, P. (1990), Soft Systems Methodology in Action, Wiley, Chichester.

Dator, J. (1971), “Dimensions of the future: Washington”, First General Assembly of the World Future Society, May, Vol. 3, pp. 311-3.

Gidley, J. (2017), The Future: A VERY short Introduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Knight, F.H. (1971), Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.

Martelli, A. (2014), Models of Scenario Building and Planning, Brocconi University Press/Palgrave MacMillan, Milan and London.

Nordlund, G. (2012), “Time-scales in futures research and forecasting”, Futures, Vol. 44 No. 4, pp. 408-14, available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.01.002

Van der Heijden, K., Bradfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G. and Wright, G. (2002), Sixth Sense Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios, Wiley, Chichester.

Yeoman, I. (2012), 2050: Tomorrow’s Tourism, Channel View Publications, Bristol.

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