Scenario planning of electricity supply system: case of Iran

Abstract

Purpose

Energy has a strategic role in the social and economic development of countries. Affordability, accessibility and availability of energy sources are the priorities of the governments in energy supply. Therefore, understanding the robustness of energy supply is an important subject of energy researchers and policymakers. This paper aims to analyze the robustness of the electricity system at the national level.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis is implemented for a selected case study. Then, the expert panel weighed the parameters’ effect on sustainable power generation, the survey is quantified using fuzzy logic. Finally, cross functional analysis is applied to evaluate the influence/dependence of the parameters.

Findings

The results show three determinant parameters which have the most influence on the system: fluctuations in oil prices, governmental acts and sanctions against the country. The most dependent parameters, as objectives variables, are the share of renewables and distributed generation (DG), system reliability, power generation diversity and transmission efficiency.

Originality/value

Using future studies methods in the energy level at the nation level has been done for the first time in the current work.

Citation

Heidari, A., Aslani, A. and Hajinezhad, A. (2017), "Scenario planning of electricity supply system: case of Iran", Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, Vol. 8 No. 3, pp. 299-330. https://doi.org/10.1108/JSTPM-05-2017-0024