TY - JOUR AB - Purpose This research aims to model the relationship between the credit risk signals in the credit default swap (CDS) market and agency credit ratings, and determines the factors that help explain the variation in such signals.Design/methodology/approach A comprehensive analysis of the differences in the relative credit risk assessments of CDS-based risk signals and agency ratings is provided. It is shown that the divergence between credit risk signals in the CDS market and agency ratings is explained by factors which the rating agencies may consider differently than credit market participants.Findings The results suggest that agency credit ratings of relative riskiness of a reference entity do not always correspond with assessments by CDS spreads, as the price of risk is a function of additional macro and micro factors that can be explained using statistical analysis.Originality/value This research is unique in modeling the relationship between the credit risk assessments of the CDS market and the agency ratings, which to the best of the authors' knowledge has not been analyzed before in terms of their agreement and the level of discrepancy between them. This model can be used by investors in debt instruments that are not explicitly CDSs or which have illiquid CDS contracts, to replicate market-based, point-in-time credit risk signals. Based on both market-based and firm-specific factors in this model, the results can be used to augment through-the-cycle credit risk assessments, analyze issues surrounding the pricing of CDSs and examine the policies of credit rating agencies. VL - 17 IS - 2 SN - 1526-5943 DO - 10.1108/JRF-07-2015-0070 UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-07-2015-0070 AU - Jacobs Jr Michael AU - Karagozoglu Ahmet K. AU - Layish Dina Naples PY - 2016 Y1 - 2016/01/01 TI - Credit risk signals in CDS market vs agency ratings T2 - The Journal of Risk Finance PB - Emerald Group Publishing Limited SP - 194 EP - 217 Y2 - 2024/03/28 ER -