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Risk-based maintenance and remaining life assessment for gas turbines

Mohamed Khalifa (Project Execution and Technical Services, Newfoundland Hydro- a Nalcor Energy Company, St John's, Canada)
Faisal Khan (Department of Process Engineering, Memorial University, St John's, Canada)
Joseph Thorp (Aramco Services Company, Houston, United States)

Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering

ISSN: 1355-2511

Article publication date: 9 March 2015



The purpose of this paper is to propose a quantitative model for risk-based maintenance and remaining life assessment for gas turbines.


The proposed model uses historical failure and repair data from the operation of gas turbines. The time to failure of gas turbines is modeled using Weibull distribution.


The total risk is estimated considering replacement cost, repair cost, operation cost, risk of failure and turbine remaining value after a specified period of time.


The model is an effective tool to make optimal decisions regarding maintenance strategy (repair or replacement) and to assess the remaining life based on a comparison of the total risk. The literature review focusses on developing different models to make risk-based decisions regarding the selection of a maintenance strategy and maintenance interval, however, literature is silent regarding risk-based assessment of the equipment remaining life, which is the focus of present work. The model is tested and applied to ageing gas turbines in a cross-country pipeline.



The author (F. Khan) thankfully acknowledges financial support provided by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC); and the support extended by industry partner Aramco Services Company.


Khalifa, M., Khan, F. and Thorp, J. (2015), "Risk-based maintenance and remaining life assessment for gas turbines", Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering, Vol. 21 No. 1, pp. 100-111.



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