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How long is UK property cycle?

Arvydas Jadevicius (Amsterdam, The Netherlands)
Simon Hugh Huston (The Royal Agricultural University, Cirencester, UK)

Journal of Property Investment & Finance

ISSN: 1463-578X

Article publication date: 3 July 2017

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess the duration of the UK commercial property cycles, their volatility and persistence to gauge future market direction.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs a novel approach to dissect cycles in a form of a three-step algorithm. First, the Hodrick-Prescott de-trends the selected variables. Second, volatility (measured by the variance) screens periods of atypical fluctuations in the series. Finally, the series is regressed against its past values to assess the level of persistence. The sequential steps screen the length of the cycles in UK commercial property market to facilitate interpretation.

Findings

The estimates suggest that UK commercial property market follows an eight-year cycle. Combined modelling results indicate that the current market trend is likely to change over the coming year. The modelling suggests increasing probability of a market correction in late 2016/early 2017.

Practical implications

This updated appreciation of the UK commercial property cycle duration allows for better market timing and investment decision making.

Originality/value

The paper adds additional evidence on the contested issue of UK commercial property cycle duration.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank anonymous reviewers for their suggestions regarding this manuscript. All views and errors are those of the authors.

Citation

Jadevicius, A. and Huston, S.H. (2017), "How long is UK property cycle?", Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Vol. 35 No. 4, pp. 410-426. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-10-2016-0083

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2017, Emerald Publishing Limited