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Judgmental vs. time series vs. deterministic models in local revenue forecasting: a florida case study

Howard A. Frank (School of Public Policy and Management Florida International University North Miami Campus North Miami, Florida 33181)
XiaoHu Wang (School of Public Policy and Management Florida International University North Miami Campus North Miami, Florida 33181)

Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management

ISSN: 1096-3367

Article publication date: 1 March 1994

70

Abstract

This article presents a study of revenue forecasting in a Florida municipal government. Seven techniques, including the budget officers' judgmental approach, time series models, a deterministic model, and an optimized model, are employed with franchise and utility receipts in the Town of Davie. The authors found that simple time series models outperformed deterministic models and the judgmentally derived forecasts of local officials. Consistent with prior research, findings here suggest that the time series models are not only accurate, but also easy to implement and readily comprehensible by local officials.

Citation

Frank, H.A. and Wang, X. (1994), "Judgmental vs. time series vs. deterministic models in local revenue forecasting: a florida case study", Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, Vol. 6 No. 4, pp. 493-517. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPBAFM-06-04-1994-B001

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 1994 by PrAcademics Press

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