Rogue seasonality in supply chains: an investigation and a measurement approach
Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management
ISSN: 1741-038X
Article publication date: 7 April 2015
Abstract
Purpose
Shukla et al. (2012) proposed a signature and index to detect and measure rogue seasonality in supply chains, but which, however, were not effectively validated. The authors have sought to investigate rogue seasonality using control theory and realistic multi echelon systems and rigorously validate these measures, so as to enable their application in practice. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
Frequency domain analysis of single echelon and simulated four echelon Beer game system outputs are used in the investigation, with the simulation incorporating realistic features such as non-linearities from backlogs and batching, hybrid make to order-make to stock ordering system and the shipment variable. Lead time, demand process parameters, ordering parameters and batch size are varied in the simulation to rigorously assess the validity of the index.
Findings
The signature based on the cluster profiles of variables, specifically whether the variables cluster together with or away from exogenous demand, was validated. However, a threshold for the proportion of variables that could be clustered with exogenous demand and the system still being classified as exhibiting rogue seasonality, would require to be specified. The index, which is derived by quantifying the cluster profile relationships, was found to be a valid and robust indicator of the intensity of rogue seasonality, and which did not need any adjustments of the kind discussed for the signature. The greater effectiveness of the frequency domain in comparison to time for deriving the signature and index was demonstrated.
Practical implications
This work enables speedy assessment of rogue seasonality in supply chains which in turn ensures appropriate and timely action to minimize its adverse consequences.
Originality/value
Detailed and specific investigation on rogue seasonality using control theory and Beer game simulation and rigorous validation of the signature and index using these methods.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The author’s acknowledge the Research Council of Norway (Norges forskningsråd) and companies that are supporting and financing the authors (first and fourth authors) through the project Innovation in Global Maritime Production 2020 (IGLO-MP). A special acknowledgement is dedicated to all the managers, engineers and project members who provided the authors relevant insights and valuable discussions throughout this study. Yet, this paper reflects and presents the authors’ viewpoints and the respective companies involved are not responsible for any statements made or use that may be made of the information contained in this paper. The author’s want to thank the anonymous reviewers for their relevant contribution for improving this paper.
Citation
Shukla, V. and Naim, M.M. (2015), "Rogue seasonality in supply chains: an investigation and a measurement approach", Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 364-389. https://doi.org/10.1108/JMTM-09-2013-0118
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2015, Emerald Group Publishing Limited