Development of a machine-learning-based decision support mechanism for predicting chemical tanker cleaning activity

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a machine learning-based automatic labeling methodology for chemical tanker activities that can be applied to any port with any number of active tankers and the identification of important predictors. The methodology can be applied to any type of activity tracking that is based on automatically generated geospatial data.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed methodology uses three machine learning algorithms (artificial neural networks, support vector machines (SVMs) and random forest) along with information fusion (IF)-based sensitivity analysis to classify chemical tanker activities. The data set is split into training and test data based on vessels, with two vessels in the training data and one in the test data set. Important predictors were identified using a receiver operating characteristic comparative approach, and overall variable importance was calculated using IF from the top models.

Findings

Results show that an SVM model has the best balance between sensitivity and specificity, at 93.5% and 91.4%, respectively. Speed, acceleration and change in the course on the ground for the vessels are identified as the most important predictors for classifying vessel activity.

Research limitations/implications

The study evaluates the vessel movements waiting between different terminals in the same port, but not their movements between different ports for their tank-cleaning activities.

Practical implications

The findings in this study can be used by port authorities, shipping companies, vessel operators and other stakeholders for decision support, performance tracking, as well as for automated alerts.

Originality/value

This analysis makes original contributions to the existing literature by defining and demonstrating a methodology that can automatically label vehicle activity based on location data and identify certain characteristics of the activity by finding important location-based predictors that effectively classify the activity status.

Citation

Cankaya, B., Eren Tokgoz, B., Dag, A. and Santosh, K.C. (2021), "Development of a machine-learning-based decision support mechanism for predicting chemical tanker cleaning activity", Journal of Modelling in Management, Vol. 16 No. 4, pp. 1138-1165. https://doi.org/10.1108/JM2-12-2019-0284