Predicting business processes of the social insurance using recurrent neural network and Markov chain

Abstract

Purpose

Predicting the final status of an ongoing process or a subsequent activity in a process is an important aspect of process management. Semi-structured business processes cannot be predicted by precise and mathematical methods. Therefore, artificial intelligence is one of the successful methods. This study aims to propose a method that is a combination of deep learning methods, in particular, the recurrent neural network and Markov chain.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed method applies the BestFirst algorithm for the search section and the Cfssubseteval algorithm for the feature comparison section. This study focuses on the prediction systems of social insurance and tries to present a method that is less costly in providing real-world results based on the past history of an event.

Findings

The proposed method is simulated with real data obtained from Iranian Social Security Organization, and the results demonstrate that using the proposed method increases the memory utilization slightly more than the Markov method; however, the CPU usage time has dramatically decreased in comparison with the Markov method and the recurrent neural network and has, therefore, significantly increased the accuracy and efficiency.

Originality/value

This research tries to provide an approach capable of producing the findings closer to the real world with fewer time and processing overheads, given the previous records of an event and the prediction systems of social insurance.

Citation

Fadaei PellehShahi, M., Kordrostami, S., Refahi Sheikhani, A.H. and Faridi Masouleh, M. (2022), "Predicting business processes of the social insurance using recurrent neural network and Markov chain", Journal of Modelling in Management, Vol. 17 No. 3, pp. 941-963. https://doi.org/10.1108/JM2-04-2021-0105