To read this content please select one of the options below:

An empirical exploration of the performance of alternative option pricing models: The case of Indian currency options

Aparna Prasad Bhat (Department of Finance, K.J. Somaiya Institute of Management Studies and Research, Mumbai, India)

Journal of Indian Business Research

ISSN: 1755-4195

Article publication date: 8 October 2018

Issue publication date: 1 March 2019

376

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the effectiveness of major deterministic and stochastic volatility-based option pricing models in pricing and hedging exchange-traded dollar–rupee options over a five-year period since the launch of these options in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper examines the pricing and hedging performance of five different models, namely, the Black–Scholes–Merton model (BSM), skewness- and kurtosis-adjusted BSM, NGARCH model of Duan, Heston’s stochastic volatility model and an ad hoc Black–Scholes (AHBS) model. Risk-neutral structural parameters are extracted by calibrating each model to the prices of traded dollar–rupee call options. These parameters are used to generate out-of-sample model option prices and to construct a delta-neutral hedge for a short option position. Out-of-sample pricing errors and hedging errors are compared to identify the best-performing model. Robustness is tested by comparing the performance of all models separately over turbulent and tranquil periods.

Findings

The study finds that relatively simpler models fare better than more mathematically complex models in pricing and hedging dollar–rupee options during the sample period. This superior performance is observed to persist even when comparisons are made separately over volatile periods and tranquil periods. However the more sophisticated models reveal a lower moneyness-maturity bias as compared to the BSM model.

Practical implications

The study concludes that incorporation of skewness and kurtosis in the BSM model as well as the practitioners’ approach of using a moneyness-maturity-based volatility within the BSM model (AHBS model) results in better pricing and hedging effectiveness for dollar–rupee options. This conclusion has strong practical implications for market practitioners, hedgers and regulators in the light of increased volatility in the dollar–rupee pair.

Originality/value

Existing literature on this topic has largely centered around either US equity index options or options on major liquid currencies. While many studies have solely focused on the pricing performance of option pricing models, this paper examines both the pricing and hedging performance of competing models in the context of Indian currency options. Robustness of findings is tested by comparing model performance across periods of stress and tranquility. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper is one of the first comprehensive studies to focus on an emerging market currency pair such as the dollar–rupee.

Keywords

Citation

Bhat, A.P. (2019), "An empirical exploration of the performance of alternative option pricing models: The case of Indian currency options", Journal of Indian Business Research, Vol. 11 No. 1, pp. 23-49. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIBR-04-2018-0114

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited

Related articles