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The effect of the financial crisis on the dynamic relation between foreign exchange and stock returns: Empirical evidence from MENA region

Neveen Ahmed (The American University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt)

Journal of Economic Studies

ISSN: 0144-3585

Article publication date: 8 October 2018

579

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic relationship between foreign exchange and stock returns. Specifically, the authors examine the impact of the 2008 financial crises on the relation between foreign exchange and stock returns in the MENA region.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors examine the long-run relation between these two variables using VECM and the authors study the volatility behavior of these two variables using the Dynamic VECH–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The sample covers the MENA region over the period 2004–2015.

Findings

The results indicate a regime shift in three countries: Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. In addition, the results assert asymmetric relation between stock returns and changes in exchange rates during pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Modeling the volatility of the foreign exchange and stock return and their covariance using VECH–GARCH suggests that the persistence in volatility is more prominent in the crisis/post-crisis period as compared with the pre-crisis period. Finally, the authors also find more significant results for the persistence parameter in the covariance between stock return and foreign exchange in the crisis/post-crisis period as compared with the pre-crisis period.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the studies by Wong and Li (2010) and Caporale et al. (2014) are the only two that have examined the interaction between stock prices and foreign exchange during the recent financial crisis of 2008. To the authors’ knowledge, none of the previous literature examined the impact of financial 2008 crisis on the relation between foreign exchange and stock prices in the MENA.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

The author of this paper has not made his research data set openly available. Any enquiries regarding the data set can be directed to the author.

Citation

Ahmed, N. (2018), "The effect of the financial crisis on the dynamic relation between foreign exchange and stock returns: Empirical evidence from MENA region", Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 45 No. 5, pp. 994-1031. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-10-2017-0308

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited

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