Volatility and efficiency of the world crude oil market

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine volatility and the weak-form efficient market hypothesis (random walk) of world spot crude oil market.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH-M), exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH), and threshold GARCH (TGARCH) models. The data are selected from three markets: Dubai Vetch (DV), West Texas Intermediate, and Europe Brent Spot Price.

Findings

The weak-form efficient market (random walk) hypothesis was rejected for all estimated GARCH-M, EGARCH, and TGARCH models, indicating that these markets are inefficient and predictable. For daily data, the empirical results showed the presence of asymmetric effects, and the conditional variance process was found to be highly persistent.

Originality/value

This study is unique in its nature as it examines three markets on three continents. In addition, one of these markets (DV) was not carried out by the previous study. This work takes into account the market location.

Citation

Al Fawzan, F.A.A. (2015), "Volatility and efficiency of the world crude oil market", Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Vol. 31 No. 1, pp. 20-29. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-12-2013-0043