TY - JOUR AB - Purpose The introduction of “should cost” in 2011 required all Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) to create efficiencies and improvements to reduce a program’s “will-cost” estimate. Realistic “will-cost” estimates are a necessary condition for the “should cost” analysis to be effectively implemented. Owing to the inherent difficulties in establishing a program’s will-cost estimate, this paper aims to propose a new model to infuse realism into this estimate.Design/methodology/approach Using historical data from 73 Departments of Defense programs as recorded in the selected acquisition reports (SARs), the analysis uses mixed stepwise regression to predict a program’s cost from Milestone B (MS B) to initial operational capability (IOC).Findings The presented model explains 83 per cent of the variation in the program acquisition cost. Significant predictor variables include: projected duration (months from MS B to IOC); the amount of research development test and evaluation (RDT&E) funding spent at the start of MS B; whether the program is considered a fixed-wing aircraft; whether a program is considered an electronic system program; whether a program is considered ACAT I at MS B; and the program size relative to the total program’s projected acquisition costs at MS B.Originality/value The model supports the “will-cost and should-cost” requirement levied in 2011 by providing an objective and defensible cost for what a program should actually cost based on what has been achieved in the past. A quality will-cost estimate provides a starting point for program managers to examine processes and find efficiencies that lead to reduced program costs. VL - 1 IS - 1 SN - 2399-6439 DO - 10.1108/JDAL-04-2017-0004 UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/JDAL-04-2017-0004 AU - Trudelle Ryan AU - White Edward D. AU - Ritschel Dan AU - Koschnick Clay AU - Lucas Brandon PY - 2017 Y1 - 2017/01/01 TI - Modeling median will-cost estimates for defense acquisition programs T2 - Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics PB - Emerald Publishing Limited SP - 19 EP - 33 Y2 - 2024/03/28 ER -