Higher education demand estimation & prediction by 2025 in Iran
Journal of Applied Research in Higher Education
ISSN: 2050-7003
Article publication date: 14 September 2015
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to predict the number of undergraduate applicants for the National Entrance Examination in Iran during 2012-2025 periods and to identity the factors affecting the demand for higher education in Iran.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the method of cohort, participation rate, structural regression and time series econometric models have been used. In the present study, it has been predicted by using four methods mentioned and at the next step, in addition to identifying effective factors, the results given from these four methods have been compared with each other. Furthermore, the most important factors influencing university enrollment decision have been identified by econometric method.
Findings
The results of estimating the number of the criteria applicants, show that the tendency to pursue studies is different between males and females. Therefore, their structural models differ from each other. The results of forecast in structural method support the high effectiveness of economic growth index. Most predictions are often confirmed the reduction in the number of applicants during the 2012-2025 period, especially for men.
Social implications
This paper can be helpful in opening up a discourse around cross-cultural elements in higher education demands and planning for higher education.
Originality/value
It’s important to forecast the demand for higher education using different methods, and to compare the results for specific countries.
Keywords
Citation
Ghavidel, S. and Jahani, T. (2015), "Higher education demand estimation & prediction by 2025 in Iran", Journal of Applied Research in Higher Education, Vol. 7 No. 2, pp. 194-210. https://doi.org/10.1108/JARHE-04-2013-0021
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2015, Emerald Group Publishing Limited