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Higher education demand estimation & prediction by 2025 in Iran

Saleh Ghavidel (Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Firozkoh Branch, Firozkoh, Iran)
Tahereh Jahani (Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Firozkoh Branch, Firozkoh, Iran)

Journal of Applied Research in Higher Education

ISSN: 2050-7003

Article publication date: 14 September 2015

237

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to predict the number of undergraduate applicants for the National Entrance Examination in Iran during 2012-2025 periods and to identity the factors affecting the demand for higher education in Iran.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the method of cohort, participation rate, structural regression and time series econometric models have been used. In the present study, it has been predicted by using four methods mentioned and at the next step, in addition to identifying effective factors, the results given from these four methods have been compared with each other. Furthermore, the most important factors influencing university enrollment decision have been identified by econometric method.

Findings

The results of estimating the number of the criteria applicants, show that the tendency to pursue studies is different between males and females. Therefore, their structural models differ from each other. The results of forecast in structural method support the high effectiveness of economic growth index. Most predictions are often confirmed the reduction in the number of applicants during the 2012-2025 period, especially for men.

Social implications

This paper can be helpful in opening up a discourse around cross-cultural elements in higher education demands and planning for higher education.

Originality/value

It’s important to forecast the demand for higher education using different methods, and to compare the results for specific countries.

Keywords

Citation

Ghavidel, S. and Jahani, T. (2015), "Higher education demand estimation & prediction by 2025 in Iran", Journal of Applied Research in Higher Education, Vol. 7 No. 2, pp. 194-210. https://doi.org/10.1108/JARHE-04-2013-0021

Publisher

:

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2015, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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