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System dynamics modeling and robustness analysis for capital-constrained supply chain under disruption

Xiaoming Zhang (Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China)
Yangyan Shi (Macquarie Business School, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia)
Peng Zhang (Yibin University, Yibin, China)
Fang Xu (Sichuan Tourism University, Chengdu, China)
Chaozhe Jiang (Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China)

Industrial Management & Data Systems

ISSN: 0263-5577

Article publication date: 21 November 2022

Issue publication date: 27 February 2023




The purpose of this study is to explore mitigation measures for cash flow interruption during the epidemic and provide decision support to ensure the regular operation and robustness of the supply chain (SC).


Considering the scenarios of production capacity and demand disruption during the epidemic, the authors adopt system dynamics (SD) to construct a three-echelon SC financial system consisting of a core manufacturer, a capital-constrained retailer and the customer. In different interruption scenarios, through the decision adjustments of stakeholders, the differences in performance are compared to explore solutions for SC robust optimization.


The results show that partial credit guarantee (PCG) could solve cash flow interruption and maintain the regular operation of the SC. During epidemic, with the product price increases, the revenue of stakeholders and the robustness are generally negatively correlated. But when the manufacturer's production capacity is fully interrupted, increasing product price is the right decision for the retailer and could simultaneously promote performance and robustness.


This paper primarily focuses on the PCG under the cash flow interruption caused by epidemics. The authors adopt the supply chain finance (SCF) theory and SD method to supplement and expand existing research on interruption management of SC. It is a pioneering study to explore the robustness of the SC financial system under disruptions.



Funding: This work was supported by National Social Science Found of China (Grant No. 15BGL143), Jiaji Railway Logistics Industrial Research Fund (Grant No. 2019H010402) and Sichuan Mineral Resources Research Center (Grant No. SCKCZY2022-YB010).


Zhang, X., Shi, Y., Zhang, P., Xu, F. and Jiang, C. (2023), "System dynamics modeling and robustness analysis for capital-constrained supply chain under disruption", Industrial Management & Data Systems, Vol. 123 No. 2, pp. 492-514.



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