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Pre-launch forecasting of a pharmaceutical drug

Renato Guseo (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, Padova, Italy)
Alessandra Dalla Valle (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, Padova, Italy)
Claudia Furlan (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, Padova, Italy)
Mariangela Guidolin (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, Padova, Italy)
Cinzia Mortarino (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, Padova, Italy)

International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing

ISSN: 1750-6123

Article publication date: 6 November 2017

492

Abstract

Purpose

The emergence of a pharmaceutical drug as a late entrant in a homogeneous category is a relevant issue for strategy implementation in the pharmaceutical industry. This paper aims to suggest a methodology for making pre-launch forecasts with a complete lack of information for a late entrant.

Design/methodology/approach

The diffusion process of the emerging entrant is estimated using the diffusion dynamics of pre-existing drugs, after an appropriate assessment of the drug’s entrance point. The authors’ methodology is applied to study the late introduction of a pharmaceutical drug in Italy within the category of ranitidine. Historical data of seven already active drugs in the category are used to assess and estimate ex ante the dynamics of a late entrant (Ulkobrin).

Findings

The results of applying the procedure to the ranitidine market reveal a high degree of accuracy between the ex post observed values of the late entrant and its ex ante mean predicted trajectory. Moreover, the assessed launch date corresponds to the actual date.

Research limitations/implications

The category has to be homogeneous to ensure a high degree of similarity among the existing drugs and the late entrant. For this reason, radical innovations cannot be forecast with this methodology.

Originality/value

The proposed approach contributes to the still challenging research field of pre-launch forecasting by estimating the dynamic features of a homogeneous category and exploiting them for forecasting purposes.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

This work has been supported by Ministero della Salute and Regione Veneto, Italy. Bando Giovani Ricercatori 2009; A forecasting model for drug utilization and expenditure integrating a Cellular Automata model with the Budget Impact Analysis approach GR-2009-1580488.

Citation

Guseo, R., Dalla Valle, A., Furlan, C., Guidolin, M. and Mortarino, C. (2017), "Pre-launch forecasting of a pharmaceutical drug", International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing, Vol. 11 No. 4, pp. 412-438. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPHM-07-2016-0036

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2017, Emerald Publishing Limited

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