Pre-launch forecasting of a pharmaceutical drug
International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing
ISSN: 1750-6123
Article publication date: 6 November 2017
Abstract
Purpose
The emergence of a pharmaceutical drug as a late entrant in a homogeneous category is a relevant issue for strategy implementation in the pharmaceutical industry. This paper aims to suggest a methodology for making pre-launch forecasts with a complete lack of information for a late entrant.
Design/methodology/approach
The diffusion process of the emerging entrant is estimated using the diffusion dynamics of pre-existing drugs, after an appropriate assessment of the drug’s entrance point. The authors’ methodology is applied to study the late introduction of a pharmaceutical drug in Italy within the category of ranitidine. Historical data of seven already active drugs in the category are used to assess and estimate ex ante the dynamics of a late entrant (Ulkobrin).
Findings
The results of applying the procedure to the ranitidine market reveal a high degree of accuracy between the ex post observed values of the late entrant and its ex ante mean predicted trajectory. Moreover, the assessed launch date corresponds to the actual date.
Research limitations/implications
The category has to be homogeneous to ensure a high degree of similarity among the existing drugs and the late entrant. For this reason, radical innovations cannot be forecast with this methodology.
Originality/value
The proposed approach contributes to the still challenging research field of pre-launch forecasting by estimating the dynamic features of a homogeneous category and exploiting them for forecasting purposes.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
This work has been supported by Ministero della Salute and Regione Veneto, Italy. Bando Giovani Ricercatori 2009; A forecasting model for drug utilization and expenditure integrating a Cellular Automata model with the Budget Impact Analysis approach GR-2009-1580488.
Citation
Guseo, R., Dalla Valle, A., Furlan, C., Guidolin, M. and Mortarino, C. (2017), "Pre-launch forecasting of a pharmaceutical drug", International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing, Vol. 11 No. 4, pp. 412-438. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPHM-07-2016-0036
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2017, Emerald Publishing Limited