Wrong, but not failed? A study of unexpected events and project performance in 21 engineering projects
International Journal of Managing Projects in Business
ISSN: 1753-8378
Article publication date: 27 May 2021
Issue publication date: 9 August 2021
Abstract
Purpose
Most complex engineering projects encounter unexpected events through their life cycle. These are traditionally attributed to inaccurate foresight and poor planning. Outlining a nonanticipatory alternate, the authors seek to explain the ability to rebound from unexpected events, without foresight, using resilient systems theory. This paper seeks to outline the theoretical underpinnings of project resilience and to identify criteria for planning and selecting projects for greater resilience.
Design/methodology/approach
Investigating project resilience, this paper studies the relationship between unexpected events and project performance in 21 projects. The authors perform a systematic review of project ex post evaluations 3–12 years after project completion.
Findings
First, the authors find that all projects encountered unexpected events, even when discounting planning error. Second, the authors show that, as a consequence, projects underperformed, not necessarily relative to formal criteria, but in terms of subjective opportunity cost, that is, relative to competing alternates – known or imagined – foregone by their implementation. Finally, the authors identify four types of resilient projects – superior, equivalent, compensatory and convertible projects – as opportunities for building project resilience.
Practical implications
The properties of resilient projects provide opportunities for building resilience in complex projects.
Originality/value
Departing from traditional efforts to “de risk” plans and “de-bias” planners, this paper focuses on the properties of projects themselves, as an alternate to improved foresight and up-front planning.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge DTU‐NTNU Alliance PhD Programme on Risk Management, The Research Council of Norway and the Otto Mønested Fundation for funding this study.
Citation
Wied, M., Oehmen, J., Welo, T. and Pikas, E. (2021), "Wrong, but not failed? A study of unexpected events and project performance in 21 engineering projects", International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, Vol. 14 No. 6, pp. 1290-1313. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMPB-08-2020-0270
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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