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Job separation rates of immigrants and natives in the UK during the Great Recession

Dafni Papoutsaki (Department of Economics, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK)

International Journal of Manpower

ISSN: 0143-7720

Article publication date: 2 October 2017




The purpose of this paper is to assess the probability of job separations of immigrants and natives in the UK before and during the economic crisis of 2008.


A mixed proportional hazard duration model with a semi-parametric piecewise constant baseline hazard is used on a data sample of inflows into employment.


It is found that the crisis increased the probability of exits to unemployment for all groups, while immigrants from the new countries of the European Union seemed to have the lowest hazard towards unemployment even after controlling for their demographic and labour market characteristics. More specifically, even when we account for the fact that they tend to cluster in jobs that are most vulnerable to the business cycle, they are still less likely to exit dependent employment than natives. However, this migrant group is adversely affected by the crisis the most.

Research limitations/implications

Possible implications of out-migration of the lower performers are discussed.


This paper makes use of the panel element of the UK Quarterly Labour Force Survey, and uses duration analysis on the individual level to assess the labour market outcomes of natives and immigrants in the UK.



The author would like to express gratitude to the Economic and Research Social Council for supporting this research through Doctoral Award No. 1093971. The author would also like to thank the UK Data Service for providing access to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey, Special License data.


Papoutsaki, D. (2017), "Job separation rates of immigrants and natives in the UK during the Great Recession", International Journal of Manpower, Vol. 38 No. 7, pp. 1036-1054.



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