Are house prices in the Norwegian capital too high?
International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
ISSN: 1753-8270
Article publication date: 1 June 2015
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate whether the homes in the Norwegian capital, Oslo, are overpriced. While house prices in many countries dropped after the financial crisis, those in Norway have continued to increase. Over the past 20 years, real house prices in Oslo have increased by around 7 per cent yearly.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use a vector error correction model to estimate the equilibrium between house prices, rents, construction costs and wages to examine whether house prices in Oslo are overpriced.
Findings
Long-term relationships between house prices, rents, construction costs and wages are found and used to estimate equilibrium house prices in Oslo. The overpricing in Oslo compared to estimated equilibrium prices is around 35 per cent.
Practical implications
Price–rent, price–construction cost and price–income ratios are often used, by practitioners to say something about over- or underpricing in the housing market. We test and find that house prices, rents and construction costs move toward constant ratios in the long run, while wages are found to be weakly exogenous in the system.
Originality/value
Our estimate of overpricing gives households, investors and policy-makers a better understanding of the risk associated with owning dwellings.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Frank Asche, Lars-Erik Borge, Gunnar Bårdsen, Håvard Hungnes, Snorre Lindset, Egil Matsen, Peter Molnar, Erling Røed Larsen, Hans Lind, Jon Olaf Olaussen, Bernt Arne Ødegaard and participants in various seminars and conferences for helpful comments. The authors are solely responsible for all remaining errors and omissions.
Citation
Krakstad, S.O. and Oust, A. (2015), "Are house prices in the Norwegian capital too high?", International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. 8 No. 2, pp. 152-168. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-08-2014-0034
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2015, Emerald Group Publishing Limited