TY  - JOUR
AB  - Purpose This paper aims to introduce mathematical models to capture the spreading of epidemics to explain the expansion of mortgage default events in the USA.Design/methodology/approach The authors use the state of infectiousness and death to represent the subsequent steps of payment elinquency and default, respectively. As the local economic structure influences regional unemployment, which is a strong driver of mortgage default, the authors model interdependencies of regional mortgage default rates through employment conditions and vicinity.Findings Based on a large sample between 2000 and 2014 of loan-level data, the estimation of key parameters of the model is proposed. The model’s forecast accuracy shows an above-average performance compared to well-known approaches such as linear regression or logit models.Originality/value The key findings may be useful in understanding the dynamics of mortgage defaults and its spatial spreading.
VL  - 12
IS  - 1
SN  - 1753-8270
DO  - 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2017-0047
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-05-2017-0047
AU  - Schweikert Jochen
AU  - Höchstötter Markus
PY  - 2018
Y1  - 2018/01/01
TI  - Epidemiological spreading of mortgage default
T2  - International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
PB  - Emerald Publishing Limited
SP  - 74
EP  - 93
Y2  - 2024/04/25
ER  -