Ripple effects of house prices: considering spatial correlations in geography and demography

Abstract

Purpose

Studies into ripple effects have previously focused on the interconnections between house price movements across cities over space and time. These interconnections were widely investigated in previous research using vector autoregression models. However, the effects generated from spatial information could not be captured by conventional vector autoregression models. This research aimed to incorporate spatial lags into a vector autoregression model to illustrate spatial‐temporal interconnections between house price movements across the Australian capital cities.

Design/methodology/approach

Geographic and demographic correlations were captured by assessing geographic distances and demographic structures between each pair of cities, respectively. Development scales of the housing market were also used to adjust spatial weights. Impulse response functions based on the estimated SpVAR model were further carried out to illustrate the ripple effects.

Findings

The results confirmed spatial correlations exist in housing price dynamics in the Australian capital cities. The spatial correlations are dependent more on the geographic rather than the demographic information.

Originality/value

This research investigated the spatial heterogeneity and autocorrelations of regional house prices within the context of demographic and geographic information. A spatial vector autoregression model was developed based on the demographic and geographic distance. The temporal and spatial effects on house prices in Australian capital cities were then depicted.

Citation

Ma, L. and Liu, C. (2013), "Ripple effects of house prices: considering spatial correlations in geography and demography", International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. 6 No. 3, pp. 284-299. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-05-2012-0020