Monetary policy and house prices in emerging markets

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to focus on two-way interaction between monetary policy and house prices in emerging economies.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses panel structural vector autoregressive model.

Findings

The results show that real house prices decrease in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock. However, relative to advanced economies, the reaction of the prices is limited in emerging economies, pointing out the structural differences in emerging economies including the small size of the mortgage market and the lack of a well-functioning secondary market in housing finance. This study further finds that monetary policy is tightened in response to a positive shock to house prices. However, this response is also weak when compared to that response in advanced economies.

Research limitations/implications

These findings suggest that house price developments should not be prior target for monetary policies in emerging economies unless they become problem for financial stability or inflationary concerns.

Originality/value

Using a sample of inflation targeting emerging countries, this study contributes to the literature by conducting both panel setting and single-country analysis to explore the two-way dynamic relationships between the monetary policy and housing market in emerging economies.

Citation

Tunc, C. and Gunes, A. (2023), "Monetary policy and house prices in emerging markets", International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. 16 No. 5, pp. 873-891. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-03-2022-0041