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Does tourism affect house prices in Turkey? Evidence from smooth structural break tests

Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım (Department of Economics, Pamukkale UniversityDenizliTurkey)
Cagin Karul (Department of Econometrics, Pamukkale UniversityDenizliTurkey)

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis

ISSN: 1753-8270

Article publication date: 30 August 2021

Issue publication date: 1 December 2022

358

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of tourism activities on house prices in Turkey from January 2010 to March 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

It is used newly developed cointegration and causality tests based on Fourier approximation. These methods consider smooth structural breaks and do not need to recognize a priori date number and/or form of breaks.

Findings

Empirical findings show that international tourism activities have a substantial role in the escalation of house prices in Turkey. Findings also indicate a rise in industrial production enhances house prices while the mortgage lending rate exhibits a negative influence on house prices. Additionally, the evidence from Fourier causality tests reveals the unilateral causal linkage from tourism to house prices. This situation also shows that the tourism sector has a substantial role in stabilizing house prices’ rapid rise as a policy implication.

Originality/value

Although a large number of papers have been analyzing the link between house prices and macroeconomic variables, this study eliminates the lack of papers examining the link between tourism and house prices in Turkey by using the new cointegration and causality methods that consider smooth structural changes.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

Funding: There is no funding information.

Conflicts of interest/competing interests: We declare no conflict of interest/competing interests.

Availability of data and material: The data and material are available upon request from the corresponding author.

Code availability: The codes are available upon request from the corresponding author.

Citation

Yıldırım, M.O. and Karul, C. (2022), "Does tourism affect house prices in Turkey? Evidence from smooth structural break tests", International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. 15 No. 5, pp. 1033-1052. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-03-2021-0035

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited

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