Non linear models and the load of an electricity distributor
International Journal of Energy Sector Management
ISSN: 1750-6220
Article publication date: 7 April 2015
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to ascertain whether nonlinearities could be present in electricity loads observed in subtropical environments, where none or little heating is required, and whether threshold autoregressive (TAR)-type regime switching models could be advantageous in the modeling of those loads.
Design/methodology/approach
The actual observed load of a Brazilian regional electricity distributor from January 2013 to August 2012 was modeled using a popularly employed ARMA model for reference, and smooth and non-smooth TAR transition (non-linear) models were used as non-linear regime switching models.
Findings
Evidence of nonlinearities were found in the load series, and evidence was also found on the intrinsic resistance of this type of models to structural breaks in the data. Additionally, to reacting well to asymmetries in the data, these models avoid the use of exogenous variables. Altogether, this could prove to be a definite advantage of the use of such model alternatives.
Research limitations/implications
However, even if the present work may have been limited by the observation frequency of the available data, it appears TAR models appear to be a viable alternative to forecasting short-term electricity loads. Nonetheless, additional research is required to achieve a higher accuracy of forecast data.
Practical implications
If such models can be successfully used, it will be a great advantage for electricity generators, as the computational effort involved in the use of such models is not significantly larger than regular linear ones.
Originality/value
To our knowledge, this type of research has not yet been made with subtropical/tropical electricity load data.
Keywords
Citation
Simões, M.D., Klotzle, M.C., Pinto, A.C.F. and Gomes, L.L. (2015), "Non linear models and the load of an electricity distributor", International Journal of Energy Sector Management, Vol. 9 No. 1, pp. 38-56. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-02-2014-0001
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2015, Emerald Group Publishing Limited