Modeling of technology adoption in Botswana
International Journal of Energy Sector Management
ISSN: 1750-6220
Article publication date: 27 May 2014
Abstract
Purpose
The conceptualisation of technology adoption has largely been based on the Bass or some Bass-derived model – notably, the logistic model. Logistic-type models offer limited insights regarding the adoption process dynamics or the utility value of their results. The purpose of this paper is to outline an alternative technology adoption framework based on complex adaptive networks.
Design/methodology/approach
An agent-based methodological approach is proposed. In it the actors, factors, goals, and adaptive learning influences driving solar energy technology adoption (SETA) process are first substantiated by empirical evidence gathered using field questionnaires and then incorporated in the simulation of a dynamic complex adaptive network of SETA. The complex adaptive network model is based on simple heuristic rules applied using a modified preferential attachment scheme within a NetLogo simulation environment.
Findings
The interim results suggest an emergent network where prominent hub “driver” agents underlining the robustness of the model are statistically discernible.
Research limitations/implications
The research is limited to solar photovoltaic and solar water heating technology adoption in Botswana households; however, its results are far-reaching.
Practical implications
These results can be related to sustainable energy policy design. There, targeted incentive mechanisms can be formulated against the backdrop of the identified environmental factors and actors; the aim being to accelerate and cascade SETA.
Social implications
The results could also be cascaded to other sectors and other non-solar technologies, thus providing a general alternative framework for enabling the widespread adoption of technologies.
Originality/value
This research therefore represents a novel way of utilizing the new science of networks to accelerate SETA.
Keywords
Citation
Kiravu, C., T. Oladiran, M. and Yanev, K. (2014), "Modeling of technology adoption in Botswana", International Journal of Energy Sector Management, Vol. 8 No. 2, pp. 198-229. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-02-2013-0004
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2014, Emerald Group Publishing Limited