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Cash transfers and political support: evidence from Ecuador

Juan Ponce (FLACSO Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador)
Carolina Curvale (FLACSO Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador)

International Journal of Development Issues

ISSN: 1446-8956

Article publication date: 4 June 2020

Issue publication date: 17 June 2020

132

Abstract

Purpose

This paper evaluates the argument that conditional cash transfer program recipients vote for the incumbent. We also test the hypothesis stating that ceasing to receive the benefit hinders support for the incumbent.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a regression discontinuity design, we assess the impact of the Bono de Desarrollo Humano cash transfer program on pro-incumbent voting of each of these four groups.

Findings

We did not find a significant impact of the transfer on pro-incumbent vote intention in any of the pairwise comparisons, which suggests that contextual factors determining retrospective voting may play an important role in shaping the relationship between pro-incumbent voting and social policy transfers.

Originality/value

Drawing on quasi-experimental evidence from Ecuador, where the eligibility criteria of the program changed exogenously, we evaluate the impacts of several treatments on pro-incumbent voting. We are able to identify four distinct groups: recipients under both eligibility criteria, nonrecipients under both criteria, new recipients and new nonrecipients.

Keywords

Citation

Ponce, J. and Curvale, C. (2020), "Cash transfers and political support: evidence from Ecuador", International Journal of Development Issues, Vol. 19 No. 2, pp. 255-274. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDI-11-2019-0187

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2020, Emerald Publishing Limited

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