The authors aim to provide here an opinion on the state‐of‐the‐art of integrated ecological‐economic assessments of bioenergy under climate change, as well as the challenges along with their implications faced in planning adaptation at local scale.
Investments to reduce emissions must be made in the coming decades to avoid the risks posed by climate change. If these investments are made wisely, then costs will be manageable, stability in markets as well as energy security will be achieved, and even rural development and economic growth may be stimulated. The authors call attention to the need for modeling of climate change impacts by combining the outputs from appropriately designed crop simulation models with economic analyses. Combining natural science and economics in a compatible fashion at local scale will play an essential role in advancing communication and information exchange.
There are key differences in drivers or determinants of mitigation and adaptation potential and decisions at different scales, which means that different actors, different timescales and different spatial scales of decision making must be specifically considered. Understanding of the potential impacts of climate change requires disaggregation of the agricultural sector with appropriate detail. A critical trade‐off exists between area‐wide spatial coverage and an explicit consideration of local peculiarities.
The authors suggest that a much stronger effort must be made to meld natural science crop modeling approaches with economic analyses, to include spatially explicit consideration of conventional crop production along with 1st and 2nd generation bioenergy crops, and the evaluation not only of “best guess” scenarios of change, but also potential system impacts of extreme scenarios.
Thanh Nguyen, T. and Tenhunen, J. (2013), "Review of integrated ecological‐economic analyses for bioenergy plants under climate change at local scale", International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol. 5 No. 3, pp. 324-343. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2012-0020
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