The impact of R&D on GDP study based on grey delay Lotka-Volterra model

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to elevate the accuracy when predicting the gross domestic product (GDP) on research and development (R&D) and to develop the grey delay Lotka-Volterra model.

Design/methodology/approach

Considering the lag effects between input in R&D and output in GDP, this paper estimated the delay value via grey delay relation analysis. Taking the delay into original Lotka-Volterra model and combining with the thought of grey theory and grey transform, the authors proposed grey delay Lotka-Volterra model, estimated the parameter of model and gave the discrete time analytic expression.

Findings

Collecting the actual data of R&D and GDP in Wuhan China from 1995 until 2008, this paper figure out that the delay between R&D and GDP was 2.625 year and found the dealy time would would gradually be reduced with the economy increasing.

Practical implications

Constructing the grey delay Lotka-Volterra model via above data, this paper shown that the precision was satisfactory when fitting the data of R&D and GDP. Comparing the forecasts with the actual data of GDP in Wuhan from 2009 until 2012, the error was small.

Social implications

The result shows that R&D and GDP would be both growing fast in future. Wuhan will become a city full of activity.

Originality/value

Considering the lag between R&D and GDP, this work estimated the delay value via a grey delay relation analysis and constructed a novel grey delay Lotka-Volterra model.

Citation

Mao, S., Gao, M. and Zhu, M. (2015), "The impact of R&D on GDP study based on grey delay Lotka-Volterra model", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 5 No. 1, pp. 74-88. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-11-2014-0042