Grey relational analysis between Turkey’s macroeconomic indicators and domestic savings

Abstract

Purpose

It is of great importance for economy policy makers to comprehend the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and domestic savings, and to find out which indicator is more determinative on the dynamics of domestic savings. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the degree of relationship between Turkey’s domestic savings and selected macroeconomic indicators.

Design/methodology/approach

To examine the relationship, grey relational analysis (GRA) is applied together with the entropy method to determine the weight of the indicators according to the information level they provide. The analysis covers the data of the period from 1990 to 2014. In practice, however, the data set is used by dividing into two separate periods including before and after the 2001 crisis.

Findings

The results indicate that the unemployment rate and the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth stand out with a relatively high degree of relationship for the period before 2001. When examining the post-2001 period, current balance ratio and GDP growth are ascertained as indicators which have a high degree of relationship with domestic savings.

Practical implications

These indicators have different aspects affecting both public and private savings. Therefore, it may be beneficial to concentrate on these indicators when designing a policy in order to increase the domestic saving rate.

Originality/value

There are many econometric models used for investigating Turkey’s macroeconomic indicators and domestic savings causality. But before now, any study which investigates relationship between macroeconomic indicators and domestic savings by GRA could not be encountered. Using one of the newest developed theories (the grey systems theory) for this subject is the significance of this research.

Citation

Duran, E., Uzgur Duran, B., Akay, D. and Boran, F.E. (2017), "Grey relational analysis between Turkey’s macroeconomic indicators and domestic savings", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 7 No. 1, pp. 45-59. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-10-2016-0039