A novel fractional-order discrete grey Gompertz model for analyzing the aging population in Jiangsu Province, China
Grey Systems: Theory and Application
ISSN: 2043-9377
Article publication date: 27 April 2023
Issue publication date: 6 July 2023
Abstract
Purpose
China's population aging is gradually deepening and needs to be actively addressed. The purpose of this paper is to construct a novel model for analyzing the population aging.
Design/methodology/approach
To analyze the aging status of a region, this study has considered three major indicators: total population, aged population and the proportion of the aged population. Additionally, the authors have developed a novel grey population prediction model that incorporates the fractional-order accumulation operator and Gompertz model (GM). By combining these techniques, the authors' model provides a comprehensive and accurate prediction of population aging trends in Jiangsu Province. This research methodology has the potential to contribute to the development of effective policy solutions to address the challenges posed by the population aging.
Findings
The fractional-order discrete grey GM is suitable for predicting the aging population and has good performance. The population aging of Jiangsu Province will continue to deepen in the next few years.
Practical implications
The proposed model can be used to predict and analyze aging differences in Jiangsu Province. Based on the prediction and analysis results, identified some corresponding countermeasures are suggested to address the challenges of Jiangsu's future aging problem.
Originality/value
The fractional-order discrete grey GM is firstly proposed in this paper and this model is a novel grey population prediction model with good performance.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by a project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72071111, 71671091, 72271124 and 52232014). It is also supported by a joint project of both the NSFC and the RS of the UK (71811530338) and a project of the Leverhulme Trust International Network (IN-2014-020). At the same time, the authors would like to acknowledge the partial support of the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (NC2019003) and the support of a project of Intelligence Introduction Base of the Ministry of Science and Technology (G20190010178) and the support of Jiangsu Social Science Fund of China (20GLD013).
Citation
Zhang, W., Liu, S., Liu, L., Rathnayaka, R.M.K.T., Xie, N. and Du, J. (2023), "A novel fractional-order discrete grey Gompertz model for analyzing the aging population in Jiangsu Province, China", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 13 No. 3, pp. 544-557. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-01-2023-0005
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited