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The use of uncertain scenarios in disaster risk reduction: a systematic review

Hamid Jafari (Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran)
Ahmad Jonidi Jafari (Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran)
Mahmoud Nekoei-Moghadam (Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Islamic Republic of Iran)
Salime Goharinezhad (Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran)

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Article publication date: 13 March 2019

Issue publication date: 6 June 2019

543

Abstract

Purpose

In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy making. Scenarios generated alternative descriptive futures in all of the development field such as disaster studies. This paper aims to systematically review the articles that generated scenarios in disaster management to attain gaps, challenges and opportunities related to use of scenario analysis in disasters.

Design/methodology/approach

This is a systematic review that was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords that searched included “disaster,” “emergency,” “crisis,” “disruptive event,” “futures study,” “foresight,” “scenario,” “community-based scenario planning,” “participatory scenario planning,” “scenario planning” and “scenario analysis.” The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched.

Findings

A total of 981 article gathered after initial search between electronic databases. At final step, only ten articles included in the study. The selected articles compared according to many aspects. Most of the scenarios that developed in disaster management and planning concentrated on climate change and flooding related hazards. Many of studies developed three or four scenarios that it seems the number is suitable for disaster planning.

Originality/value

The paper serves as an original guideline for disaster planning.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

This study was part of a PhD dissertation, supported, funded and sponsored by Iran University of Medical Sciences (Grant number: IUMS/SHMIS_1396/9321567001). The authors would like to thank all reviewers who helped improve the manuscript.

Citation

Jafari, H., Jonidi Jafari, A., Nekoei-Moghadam, M. and Goharinezhad, S. (2019), "The use of uncertain scenarios in disaster risk reduction: a systematic review", Foresight, Vol. 21 No. 3, pp. 409-418. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-11-2018-0099

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2019, Emerald Publishing Limited

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