Prospective games for defence strategic decisions in Brazil

C. R. Correa (Master of Maritime Studies - Simulation and Scenarios Lab, Brazilian Naval War College, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
C. H. Cagnin (Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation, Brasilia, Brazil)

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Publication date: 14 March 2016

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a model, based on strategic simulation and scenario planning, to improve the decision-making process in the Brazilian defence area.

Design/methodology/approach

Participants are disposed in three levels: decision-makers team – which goes beyond the Ministry of Defence (and military services) alone and includes other representatives of the executive and legislative branches; political and strategic advisory team – civilian representatives with a broad understanding of the national and international contexts that can contribute to developing insights and shaping the forces that may contribute to the nation’s future; and experts database— experts in fields of interest to national defence, comprising representatives of several sectors and broad areas of knowledge, including scholars, scientists, politicians, military, industry, among others.

Findings

The planning and preparation of national defence strategies require a long-term approach, which is multidisciplinary, participatory and contextualized to the geopolitical and institutional frames of the country.

Research limitations/implications

However, despite many policy papers intentions, defence issues have always been considered a matter for the military arena due to the country’s cultural background.

Practical/implications

Because decisions about defence have long-range impacts and political implications, policy-makers should shape them bearing in mind a complex and politically shared foresight process.

Social/implications

This proposed planning process enables a participatory engagement with some civil organizations and individuals as well as amplifies their commitment in national defence issues.

Originality/value

The proposal is innovative in South America, considering that it encompasses integrated simulations on participatory foresight processes as well as broadened the civilian–military dynamic relationship and the diverse viewpoints in defence implications analysis to include a wider share of the Brazilian society.

Keywords

Citation

Correa, C.R. and Cagnin, C.H. (2016), "Prospective games for defence strategic decisions in Brazil", Foresight, Vol. 18 No. 1, pp. 4-23. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-07-2014-0047

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Publisher

:

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2016, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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