Cities futures. A critical assessment of how future studies are applied to cities

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to assess recent foresight exercises applied to cities by evaluating three major issues. Have foresight practitioners understood cities complexity? Have urban planners used adequate tools to generate plausible future visions? Are city policy makers using foresight studies to limit urban uncertainty?

Design/methodology/approach

In total, 20 city foresight examples were selected which either have international relevance or which constitute good examples of future-oriented initiatives. Case studies were classified into five taxonomies: European Union initiatives; local initiatives; academic initiatives; corporate initiatives; and architectural initiatives. A set of assessment criteria was established: city complexity conceptualization; methodological approach; and study impact.

Findings

Preliminary research outcomes show growing doubts about the appropriateness of the foresight tools used in cities and about the competency of foresight practitioners in understanding the complex and dynamic nature of contemporary cities. Furthermore, policy makers do not seem to grasp the potential of foresight to formulate urban strategies.

Research limitations/implications

Some of the initiatives studied are relatively recent, so impact analysis has been limited by available data. Mostly, secondary documented sources were used to validate cases’ assessment. Research suggests a number of areas in which foresight studies may have a practical application to the urban realm.

Originality/value

The value of the present work lies in the effort for assessing and improving forward-looking activities undertaken at cities through a set of criteria which take into consideration the complexity and diversity of contemporary cities.

Citation

Fernández Güell, J.M. and López, J.G. (2016), "Cities futures. A critical assessment of how future studies are applied to cities", Foresight, Vol. 18 No. 5, pp. 454-468. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-06-2015-0032