Defence and security: new issues and impacts

Andrew James (Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK)
Thomas Teichler (Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK)

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Publication date: 8 April 2014

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide a meta-analysis of the main themes emerging from public domain foresight studies on the defence and security environment undertaken in the decade since the 9/11 attacks on the USA. The authors focus mainly on foresight studies undertaken in Europe.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper is based on a content analysis of public domain foresight studies.

Findings

Foresight studies on the defence and security environment reflect a shift in security thinking away from a focus on state-centric threats towards a much broader view of security risks that includes risks presented by the vulnerability of European society to the failure of critical infrastructure, to pandemics, environmental change and resource based conflicts. The authors place a particular emphasis on the treatment of technological change in these defence and security foresight studies and argue that the growing importance of dual-use technologies is likely to mean that defence will play a declining role as a sponsor and lead-user of advanced technologies in the future.

Originality/value

Foresight studies on the defence and security environment have grown in number since 9/11 not least in Europe. However, they have been the subject of little systematic analysis. This paper makes a contribution to such an analysis.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to express their thanks to all the members of the SANDERA consortium for their contribution to the authors' thinking on these matters and in particular the participants in the SANDERA workshops in Manchester and Valencia and the contributors to the SANDERA discussion papers. The products of the SANDERA project are available at www.SANDERA.net

Citation

James, A. and Teichler, T. (2014), "Defence and security: new issues and impacts", Foresight, Vol. 16 No. 2, pp. 165-175. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-06-2012-0042

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Publisher

:

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2014, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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