Climate change projections for Algeria: the 2030 water sector development strategy

Abstract

Purpose

The first aim of this study is to show the impact of global warming on temperature and precipitation changes in Algeria. The second objective is to exhibit the strategy planned by the country to mitigate these effects on water resources in the future.

Design/methodology/approach

This research assesses the expected changes in temperature, precipitation and SPEI index, over Algeria (16 weather stations), between two horizons (2030, 2050), by using an ensemble of 16 general circulation models under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Findings

More warming and drought will be experienced under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6 scenario. The highest warming is observed at the Southern stations. However, the lowest precipitation is projected in the western stations. The results of SPEI calculation indicate that the severity of drought spread progressively across time and space. The highest values were observed over 2050 with values varied between 0.15 and −2.08 under RCP2.6 scenario, and range from −0.73 to −2.63 under RCP8.5. These results indicate that Algeria is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change on water resources, which stressed the need to develop a strategy against this situation.

Originality/value

This study is one of the first to simulate the future climate changes over 16 Algerian weather stations by using an average of 16 general circulation models data, under two RCP scenarios. This study shows the 2030 water development strategy to mitigate the effect of drought and water scarcity on different sectors.

Citation

Bouregaa, T. (2023), "Climate change projections for Algeria: the 2030 water sector development strategy", Foresight, Vol. 25 No. 4, pp. 516-534. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-05-2021-0110