Future study of textile industry in Iran using the MICMAC and soft operational research methods

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to formulate exploratory scenarios of the textile industry in Iran based on MICMAC and soft operational research methods.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, to formulate plausible scenarios, literature reviews and external experts’ opinions of this field have been gathered through the Delphi approach and uncertainty questionnaires. After the utilization of the most important uncertainties, the textile industry’s plausible scenarios have been mapped with the help of experts through co-thinking workshops. Results show that two factors, including the business atmosphere and membership in World Trade Organization (WTO), play a more important role than the other factors. These two factors were considered for the formulation of the scenario. To formulate plausible scenarios, soft systems methodology, which is a kind of soft operational research methods, is applied.

Findings

Based on the results, four scenarios are presented. These scenarios include the Elysium scenario, Hades scenario, Tatarus scenario and Sisyphus scenario. In the Elysium scenario, the business atmosphere has improved and Iran has been granted membership of the WTO. In Hades scenario, Iran has joined the WTO, but due to the government’s weakness and inactivity and key decision-makers, the required preparations have not been made. In the Tatarus scenario, Iran is not a WTO member and the business atmosphere is disastrous. In the Sisyphus scenario, the government takes reasonable actions toward a better business environment.

Originality/value

Formulating plausible scenarios of the textile industry is an excellent contribution to the key beneficiaries and actors of this industry so they can present flexible preparation-based programs in the face of circumstances. Future study of the textile industry familiarizes the actors and beneficiaries of this industry with the procedures and the driving forces that influence this industry’s future and it will ascertain various scenarios for the actors of this field.

Citation

Fathi, M.R., Sobhani, S.M., Maleki, M.H. and Jandaghi, G. (2021), "Future study of textile industry in Iran using the MICMAC and soft operational research methods", Foresight, Vol. 23 No. 4, pp. 439-456. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-02-2020-0017