Asset management using a hybrid backcasting/forecasting approach

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to facilities and built asset management adaptation planning to climate change based on a hybrid backcasting/forecasting model. Backcasting envisions a future state and examines alternative “pathways of approach” by looking backwards from the future state to the present day. Each pathway is examined in turn to identify interventions required for that pathway to achieve the future state. Each pathway is reviewed using forecasting tools and the most appropriate is selected. This paper describes the application of this approach to the integration of climate change adaptation plans into facilities and built asset management.

Design/methodology/approach

The researchers worked with various stakeholders as part of a participatory research team to identify climate change adaptations that may be required to ensure the continued performance of a new educational building over its life cycle. The team identified 2020, 2040 and 2080 year end-goals and assessed alternative pathways of approach. The most appropriate pathways were integrated into the facilities and built asset management plan.

Findings

The paper outlines a conceptual framework for formulating long term facilities and built asset management strategies to address adaptation to climate change.

Research limitations/implications

The conceptual framework is validated by a single research case study, and further examples are needed to ensure validity of the approach in different facilities management contexts.

Originality/value

This is the first paper to explore backcasting principles as part of facilities and built asset management planning.

Citation

Jones, K., Desai, A., Mulville, M. and Jones, A. (2015), "Asset management using a hybrid backcasting/forecasting approach", Facilities, Vol. 33 No. 11/12, pp. 701-715. https://doi.org/10.1108/F-11-2014-0090