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Uncertain about Uncertainty: Some Observations on Probability and Decision Making

Charles J. Shelley (Principal if AQA, Applied Quantitative Analysis, Inc. a management consulting firm, and Assistant Professor of Management at Suffolk University. )

Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing

ISSN: 0885-8624

Article publication date: 1 January 1991

Abstract

Sets out the simple structure of a decision dilemma. Shows how to evaluate the possible scenarios that could be encountered. Discusses the role of probability and shows how to combine probability and economic consequences into a simple comparison between risky and conservative courses of action. Concludes that uncertainty need not stop decision making; dilemmas can be resolved.

Keywords

Citation

Shelley, C.J. (1991), "Uncertain about Uncertainty: Some Observations on Probability and Decision Making", Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, Vol. 6 No. 1/2, pp. 5-13. https://doi.org/10.1108/EUM0000000002747

Publisher

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MCB UP Ltd

Copyright © 1991, MCB UP Limited