Causal relationship between project financing and overruns in major dam projects in Africa

Abstract

Purpose

Cost and schedule overruns are rife in dam projects. Normative evidence espouses overruns as though they are inimical to development and prosperity aspirations of stakeholders. This study examines the causal relationship between project financing and overruns.

Design/methodology/approach

Causative data were extracted from completion reports of 28 major dam projects in Africa. Each of the projects was financed jointly by up to 10 international development lenders. Relationships between causes of overruns and project outcomes were analysed.

Findings

Analyses elicit indicators of remarkable correlations between finance procedures and project outcomes. Lenders’ disposition to risk attenuation was the main debacles to project success. Interests had mounted, whilst release of fund was erratic and ill-timed. Finance objectives and mechanisms were grossly inadequate for projects’ intense bifurcations. Projects had slowed or stalled because lenders’ risks attenuation processes were purposed to favour lenders’ objectives, and not projects’ interests. In addition, findings also show project owners’ own funds and the number of lenders to a single project correlate with overruns.

Practical implications

Findings imply commercial complexities around major projects. They also show transactions are shaped by subtle (mis)trust behaviours in project finance procedures. Thus, scholarly solutions to project performance issues should consider behavioural issues of stakeholding parties more broadly, beyond contractors and project owners. Project finance ecosystems are vulnerable to major actors’ self-interests, opportunism and predatory conducts. Borrowers would manage this by developing and improving their capacity to build resilience and trust. Evidence shows intense borrower nations in Africa have limited capacity and acuity for these.

Originality/value

This study contextualises megaprojects in complexity rather than cost. Its additionality is in how finance steers absolute control of project environment away from project owners and how finance administration triggers risks and overrun.

Citation

Olatunji, O.A., Rotimi, J.O.B., Rotimi, F.E. and Silva, C.C.W. (2024), "Causal relationship between project financing and overruns in major dam projects in Africa", Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-03-2023-0286