GWLM–NARX: Grey Wolf Levenberg–Marquardt-based neural network for rainfall prediction

Abstract

Purpose

Weather forecasting is the trending topic around the world as it is the way to predict the threats posed by extreme rainfall conditions that lead to damage the human life and properties. These issues can be managed only when the occurrence of the worse weather is predicted in advance, and sufficient warnings can be executed in time. Thus, keeping in mind the importance of the rainfall prediction system, the purpose of this paper is to propose an effective rainfall prediction model using the nonlinear auto-regressive with external input (NARX) model.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper proposes a rainfall prediction model using the time-series prediction that is enabled using the NARX model. The time-series prediction ensures the effective prediction of the rainfall in a particular area or the locality based on the rainfall data in the previous term or month or year. The proposed NARX model serves as an adaptive prediction model, for which the rainfall data of the previous period is the input, and the optimal computation is based on the proposed algorithm. The adaptive prediction using the proposed algorithm is exhibited in the NARX, and the proposed algorithm is developed based on the Grey Wolf Optimization and the Levenberg–Marqueret (LM) algorithm. The proposed algorithm inherits the advantages of both the algorithms with better computational time and accuracy.

Findings

The analysis using two databases enables the better understanding of the proposed rainfall detection methods and proves the effectiveness of the proposed prediction method. The effectiveness of the proposed method is enhanced and the accuracy is found to be better compared with the other existing methods and the mean square error and percentage root mean square difference of the proposed method are found to be around 0.0093 and 0.207.

Originality/value

The rainfall prediction is enabled adaptively using the proposed Grey Wolf Levenberg–Marquardt (GWLM)-based NARX, wherein an algorithm, named GWLM, is proposed by the integration of Grey Wolf Optimizer and LM algorithm.

Citation

Mohd, R., Butt, M.A. and Baba, M.Z. (2020), "GWLM–NARX: Grey Wolf Levenberg–Marquardt-based neural network for rainfall prediction", Data Technologies and Applications, Vol. 54 No. 1, pp. 85-102. https://doi.org/10.1108/DTA-08-2019-0130