Strengthening risk-informed decision-making: scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to extreme events
Disaster Prevention and Management
ISSN: 0965-3562
Article publication date: 4 September 2020
Issue publication date: 27 November 2020
Abstract
Purpose
Enhancing the resilience of cities and strengthening risk-informed decision-making are defined as key within the Global Agenda 2030. Implementing risk-informed decision-making also requires the consideration of scenarios of exposure and vulnerability. Therefore, the paper presents selected scenario approaches and illustrates how such vulnerability scenarios can look like for specific indicators and how they can inform decision-making, particularly in the context of urban planning.
Design/methodology/approach
The research study uses the example of heat stress in Ludwigsburg, Germany, and adopts participatory and quantitative forecasting methods to develop scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to heat stress.
Findings
The paper indicates that considering changes in future vulnerability of people is important to provide an appropriate information base for enhancing urban resilience through risk-informed urban planning. This can help cities to define priority areas for future urban development and to consider the socio-economic and demographic composition in their strategies.
Originality/value
The value of the research study lies in implementing new qualitative and quantitative scenario approaches for human exposure and vulnerability to strengthen risk-informed decision-making.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
This research work is based on the project “Vulnerability and Risk Analysis as an Instrument for the Advancement of Resilience of Cities and Urban Infrastructure” (ZURES) funded (No. 01UR1613A) by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Germany through their research program FONA Socio-Ecological Research.
Citation
Birkmann, J., Sauter, H., Jamshed, A., Sorg, L., Fleischhauer, M., Sandholz, S., Wannewitz, M., Greiving, S., Bueter, B., Schneider, M. and Garschagen, M. (2020), "Strengthening risk-informed decision-making: scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to extreme events", Disaster Prevention and Management, Vol. 29 No. 5, pp. 663-679. https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-05-2020-0147
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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