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Strengthening risk-informed decision-making: scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to extreme events

Joern Birkmann (Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany)
Holger Sauter (Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany)
Ali Jamshed (Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany)
Linda Sorg (City Administration Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany)
Mark Fleischhauer (Faculty of Spatial Planning, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany)
Simone Sandholz (United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany)
Mia Wannewitz (Faculty of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, München, Germany)
Stefan Greiving (Faculty of Spatial Planning, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany)
Bjoern Bueter (GEO-NET Umweltconsulting GmbH, Hannover, Germany)
Melanie Schneider (GEO-NET Umweltconsulting GmbH, Hannover, Germany)
Matthias Garschagen (Faculty of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, München, Germany)

Disaster Prevention and Management

ISSN: 0965-3562

Article publication date: 4 September 2020

Issue publication date: 27 November 2020

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Abstract

Purpose

Enhancing the resilience of cities and strengthening risk-informed decision-making are defined as key within the Global Agenda 2030. Implementing risk-informed decision-making also requires the consideration of scenarios of exposure and vulnerability. Therefore, the paper presents selected scenario approaches and illustrates how such vulnerability scenarios can look like for specific indicators and how they can inform decision-making, particularly in the context of urban planning.

Design/methodology/approach

The research study uses the example of heat stress in Ludwigsburg, Germany, and adopts participatory and quantitative forecasting methods to develop scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to heat stress.

Findings

The paper indicates that considering changes in future vulnerability of people is important to provide an appropriate information base for enhancing urban resilience through risk-informed urban planning. This can help cities to define priority areas for future urban development and to consider the socio-economic and demographic composition in their strategies.

Originality/value

The value of the research study lies in implementing new qualitative and quantitative scenario approaches for human exposure and vulnerability to strengthen risk-informed decision-making.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

This research work is based on the project “Vulnerability and Risk Analysis as an Instrument for the Advancement of Resilience of Cities and Urban Infrastructure” (ZURES) funded (No. 01UR1613A) by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Germany through their research program FONA Socio-Ecological Research.

Citation

Birkmann, J., Sauter, H., Jamshed, A., Sorg, L., Fleischhauer, M., Sandholz, S., Wannewitz, M., Greiving, S., Bueter, B., Schneider, M. and Garschagen, M. (2020), "Strengthening risk-informed decision-making: scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to extreme events", Disaster Prevention and Management, Vol. 29 No. 5, pp. 663-679. https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-05-2020-0147

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2020, Emerald Publishing Limited

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