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Cumulative degradation methodology to predict reliability of electronic systems

George Thiel (Microsoft Corp, Redmond, Washington, USA)
Flavio Griggio (Microsoft Corp, Redmond, Washington, USA)
Sanjay Tiku (Microsoft Corp, Redmond, Washington, USA)

Circuit World

ISSN: 0305-6120

Article publication date: 25 June 2021

Issue publication date: 24 November 2022




The purpose of this paper is to describe a novel methodology for predicting reliability for consumer electronics or any other hardware systems that experience a complex lifecycle environmental profile.


This Physics-of-Failure–based three-step methodology can be used to predict the degradation rate of a population using a Monte Carlo approach. The three steps include: using an empirical equation describing the degradation of a performance metric, a degradation consistency condition and a technique to account for cumulative degradation across multiple life-cycle stress conditions (e.g. temperature, voltage, mechanical load, etc.).


Two case studies are provided to illustrate the methodology including one related to repeated touch-load induced artifacts for displays.


This novel methodology can be applied to a wide range of applications from mechanical systems to electrical circuits. The results can be fed into the several stages of engineering validation to speed up product qualification.



Thiel, G., Griggio, F. and Tiku, S. (2022), "Cumulative degradation methodology to predict reliability of electronic systems", Circuit World, Vol. 48 No. 4, pp. 425-433.



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