Revisiting the performance of the scaled momentum strategies

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this study is to enunciate the underlying factors that enhance the performance of scaled momentum strategies.

Design/methodology/approach

In previous studies, the negative relationship between the lagged volatility and future return of momentum strategy is exploited to manage the risk. But this negative relationship only holds when volatility is higher, further the volatility is shown to be persistent. The implication of these two characteristics is important and this paper highlights that.

Findings

The higher performance of the scaled momentum strategies for the US market is linked with the length of the investment horizon. The traditional asset pricing models fail to explain this relationship. However, the authors find that the excess variance loaded on the long side of these strategies is one important explanation of this horizon bound performance of these strategies.

Practical implications

This study highlights that the volatility scaled momentum strategy has higher gains as the investment horizon increases. Therefore, it is an advisable investment strategy for the pension fund industry.

Originality/value

Momentum strategy is unique as it fulfils two criteria of performance enhancement through volatility scaling, such as, the persistent in volatility and its negative relationship with the returns. However, the impact on the performance of the negative relationship between volatility and return that only exist in highest volatility related states is not discussed. The authors have shown that this aspect of volatility and return relationship of the momentum strategy has an important bearing on the performance of the volatility scaled momentum strategies.

Highlights of the Paper

1. This study finds that the Sharpe ratios and the alphas of the volatility scaled strategies increase as the investment horizon increases.

2. This is because the volatility series are highly persistent and the negative predictive relationship between the volatility and future momentum returns only exist when the volatility is higher. The impact of these two characteristics of the volatility series on the performance of the scaled momentum strategies is not discussed in the literature.

3. We find that the scaled strategies invest more/less when the volatility of the momentum strategy is lower/higher. By investing less when volatility is higher, the scaled strategies avoid momentum crashes and lessens the contribution of the variance from the short side in the overall variance of these strategies.

4. It is further shown that the higher performance of the volatility scaled strategies, at each investment related horizon can be explained by the higher variance loaded on the long side of such strategies in comparison to the traditional momentum strategy.

Citation

Butt, H.A., Sadaqat, M. and Tahir, M. (2022), "Revisiting the performance of the scaled momentum strategies", China Finance Review International, Vol. 12 No. 3, pp. 519-539. https://doi.org/10.1108/CFRI-06-2021-0103