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Is Baidu index really powerful to predict the Chinese stock market volatility? New evidence from the internet information

Qiaoqi Lang (School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China)
Jiqian Wang (School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China)
Feng Ma (Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China)
Dengshi Huang (School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China)
Mohamed Wahab Mohamed Ismail (Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada)

China Finance Review International

ISSN: 2044-1398

Article publication date: 5 July 2021

235

Abstract

Purpose

This paper verifies whether popular Internet information from Internet forum and search engine exhibit useful content for forecasting the volatility in Chinese stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the authors’ study commences with several HAR-RV-type models, then the study amplifies them respectively with the posting volume and search frequency to construct HAR-IF-type and HAR-BD-type models. Second, from in-sample and out-of-sample analysis, the authors empirically investigate the interpretive ability, forecasting performance (statistic and economic). Third, various robustness checks are utilized to reconfirm the authors’ findings, including alternative forecast window, alternative evaluation method and alternative stock market. Finally, the authors further discuss the forecasting performance in different forecast horizons (h = 5, 10 and 20) and asymmetric effect of information from Internet forum.

Findings

From in-sample perspective, the authors discover that posting volume exhibits better analytical ability for Chinese stock volatility than search frequency. Out-of-sample results indicate that forecasting models with posting volume could achieve a superior forecasting performance and increased economic value than competing models.

Practical implications

These findings can help investors and decision-makers obtain higher forecasting accuracy and economic gains.

Originality/value

This study enriches the existing research findings about the volatility forecasting of stock market from two dimensions. First, the authors thoroughly investigate whether the Internet information could enhance the efficiency and accuracy of the volatility forecasting concerning with the Chinese stock market. Second, the authors find a novel evidence that the information from Internet forum is more superior to search frequency in volatility forecasting of stock market. Third, they find that this study not only compares the predictability of the posting volume and search frequency simply, but it also divides the posting volume into “good” and “bad” segments to clarify its asymmetric effect respectively.

Highlights

  1. This study aims to verify whether posting volume and search frequency contain predictive content for estimating the volatility in Chinese stock market.

  2. The forecasting model with posting volume can achieve a superior forecasting performance and increases economic value than competing models.

  3. The results are robust in alternative forecast window, alternative evaluation method and alternative market index.

  4. The posting volume still can help to forecast future volatility for mid- and long-term forecast horizons. Additionally, the role of posting volume in forecasting Chinese stock volatility is asymmetric.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the editor and anonymous referees for insightful comments that significantly improved the paper. This work is supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China [71902128, 72071162, 72073109], Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Grant/Award Number [2682020ZT98]

Data Availability Statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. The data are not publicly available due to commercial restrictions.

Declaration of Interest Statement: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Citation

Lang, Q., Wang, J., Ma, F., Huang, D. and Mohamed Ismail, M.W. (2021), "Is Baidu index really powerful to predict the Chinese stock market volatility? New evidence from the internet information", China Finance Review International, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/CFRI-03-2021-0047

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited

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